Football · Uruguay Clausura · 16/08, 00:00
Prediction: Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo
Team pages: Montevideo Wanderers · Cerro Largo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Montevideo Wanderers1.23
Cerro Largo0.94
1X2
Montevideo Wanderers
Draw
Cerro Largo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Montevideo Wanderers
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Cerro Largo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montevideo Wanderers
4–1–1
Cerro Largo
(6 last)
- Cerro Largo1-2Montevideo Wanderers
- Cerro Largo0-1Montevideo Wanderers
- Cerro Largo0-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers3-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo4-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers1-0Cerro Largo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montevideo Wanderers 1587 · Cerro Largo 1491
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montevideo Wanderers (rating 1587 vs 1491).
- H2H favours Montevideo Wanderers: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montevideo Wanderers | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4 | 1 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montevideo Wanderers 4–1–1 Cerro Largo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 02/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 13/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro Largo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 11/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 19/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 19/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montevideo Wanderers | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Penarol | 1-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 5-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Montevideo Wanderers (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 06/08 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 12/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montevideo Wanderers win (42%). Probabilities: Montevideo Wanderers 42%, draw 31%, Cerro Largo 27%.
How many goals are expected in Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Montevideo Wanderers 1.23 · Cerro Largo 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.