Football · Uruguay Clausura · 22/08, 20:00
Prediction: Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting
Team pages: Cerro Largo · Defensor Sporting
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.06Total
Cerro Largo1.1
Defensor Sporting0.96
1X2
Cerro Largo
Draw
Defensor Sporting
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Largo
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Defensor Sporting
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Largo
2–2–2
Defensor Sporting
(6 last)
- Cerro Largo1-1Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting1-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo1-0Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting3-2Cerro Largo
- Defensor Sporting0-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo3-0Defensor Sporting
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Largo 1505 · Defensor Sporting 1424
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 31% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Largo (rating 1505 vs 1424).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Largo | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.8 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Largo 2–2–2 Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro Largo | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 21/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 13/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 25/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 23/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 27/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Defensor Sporting |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Largo | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Penarol | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Central Espanol | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Cerro | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Boston River | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Largo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 12/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 09/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 04/08 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/07 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Cruzeiro America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Largo win (38%). Probabilities: Cerro Largo 38%, draw 32%, Defensor Sporting 30%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 2.06 goals (Cerro Largo 1.1 · Defensor Sporting 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.