Football · Uruguay Clausura · 23/08, 23:30
Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso
Team pages: Nacional De Football · Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Nacional De Football1.72
Club Atletico Progreso0.64
1X2
Nacional De Football
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional De Football
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional De Football
5–1–0
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
- Nacional De Football2-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football1-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Nacional De Football3-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Nacional De Football1-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso1-5Nacional De Football
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1495 · Club Atletico Progreso 1427
| Nacional De Football | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1495 vs 1427).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional De Football | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.4 | 1.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 5–1–0 Club Atletico Progreso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 22/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 23/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Nacional De Football | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 16/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Nacional De Football | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 24/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 16/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional De Football | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Danubio | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional De Football
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 29/07 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/07 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Club Atletico Progreso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 16/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (64%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 64%, draw 23%, Club Atletico Progreso 13%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Nacional De Football 1.72 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.64), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.