Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol
Team pages: Deportivo Maldonado · Penarol
- Penarol2-1Deportivo Maldonado
- Penarol2-0Deportivo Maldonado
- Penarol1-1Deportivo Maldonado
- Deportivo Maldonado1-2Penarol
- Deportivo Maldonado0-1Penarol
- Penarol2-1Deportivo Maldonado
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 19% | 27% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Penarol: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Maldonado | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maldonado 0–1–5 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 12/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 06/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 07/04/24 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
| 14/10/23 Uruguay Clausura | Deportivo Maldonado | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 05/03/23 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Maldonado | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Boston River | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 11/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
4-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (54%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maldonado 19%, draw 26%, Penarol 54%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Deportivo Maldonado 0.92 · Penarol 1.69), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.