Football · Uruguay Clausura · 23/08, 16:00
Prediction: Danubio vs Racing Club de Montevideo
Team pages: Danubio · Racing Club de Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.01Total
Danubio0.9
Racing Club de Montevideo1.11
1X2
Danubio
Draw
Racing Club de Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Danubio
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Racing Club de Montevideo
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Danubio
1–2–3
Racing Club de Montevideo
(6 last)
- Racing Club de Montevideo4-0Danubio
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-2Danubio
- Danubio1-2Racing Club de Montevideo
- Danubio0-0Racing Club de Montevideo
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Danubio
- Danubio0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Danubio 1440 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1515
| Danubio | Draw | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 33% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club de Montevideo (rating 1440 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Danubio | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.4 | 2.9 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Danubio 1–2–3 Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Danubio |
| 02/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Danubio |
| 18/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Danubio | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 03/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Danubio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 17/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 19/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Danubio | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Danubio | Racing Club de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Cerro | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Nacional De Football | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Racing Club de Montevideo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Danubio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/07 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 09/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Danubio vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Club de Montevideo win (40%). Probabilities: Danubio 29%, draw 31%, Racing Club de Montevideo 40%.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model expects 2.01 goals (Danubio 0.9 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.