Football · Coppa Italia · 16/08, 18:30
Prediction: Genoa vs Ascoli
Team pages: Ascoli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Genoa1.93
Ascoli0.72
1X2
Genoa
Draw
Ascoli
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Genoa
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Ascoli
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Genoa
2–1–0
Ascoli
(3 last)
- Genoa2-1Ascoli
- Ascoli0-0Genoa
- Genoa3-2Ascoli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Genoa 1473 · Ascoli 1519
| Genoa | Draw | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ascoli (rating 1473 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Genoa: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Genoa | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 3.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Genoa 2–1–0 Ascoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/23 Italy Serie B | Genoa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ascoli |
| 11/12/22 Italy Serie B | Ascoli | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Genoa |
| 03/12/19 Coppa Italia | Genoa | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Ascoli |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Genoa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Deportivo La Coruna Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/08 | Bournemouth Club Friendly List |
1-4 | 1-10 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Leicester Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Vicenza Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 19/07 | Trento Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | AC Milan Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Como Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Ascoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Potenza Coppa Italia |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Lazio Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Frosinone Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 27/05 | Catania Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Catania Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Potenza Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Potenza Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Genoa vs Ascoli?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Genoa win (66%). Probabilities: Genoa 66%, draw 21%, Ascoli 13%.
How many goals are expected in Genoa vs Ascoli?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Genoa 1.93 · Ascoli 0.72), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Ascoli?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.