Football · Coppa Italia · 17/08, 21:15
Prediction: Palermo vs Lecce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Palermo1.34
Lecce1.27
1X2
Palermo
Draw
Lecce
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Palermo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Lecce
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palermo
2–0
Lecce
(2 last)
- Palermo2-1Lecce
- Lecce1-2Palermo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palermo 1511 · Lecce 1543
| Palermo | Draw | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Palermo: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palermo | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palermo 2–0–0 Lecce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/19 Italy Serie B | Palermo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lecce |
| 21/10/18 Italy Serie B | Lecce | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Palermo |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palermo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Juventus Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Melbourne City World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/07 | Iraklis Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Nurnberg Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/07 | FC Paradiso Europe Friendlies |
4-0 | 7-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | FC Ingolstadt Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Venezia Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
Lecce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Monopoli Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | NK Bistrica Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Istra 1961 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Stiinta Poli Timisoara Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Pisa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Verona Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palermo vs Lecce?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palermo win (37%). Probabilities: Palermo 37%, draw 29%, Lecce 34%.
How many goals are expected in Palermo vs Lecce?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Palermo 1.34 · Lecce 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Lecce?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.