Football · Coppa Italia · 17/08, 20:45
Prediction: Cremonese vs Sampdoria
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Cremonese1.41
Sampdoria0.87
1X2
Cremonese
Draw
Sampdoria
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cremonese
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Sampdoria
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cremonese
2–3–1
Sampdoria
(6 last)
- Sampdoria0-0Cremonese
- Cremonese1-1Sampdoria
- Sampdoria1-2Cremonese
- Cremonese1-1Sampdoria
- Sampdoria2-3Cremonese
- Cremonese0-1Sampdoria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cremonese 1487 · Sampdoria 1510
| Cremonese | Draw | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cremonese: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cremonese | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cremonese 2–3–1 Sampdoria
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/25 Italy Serie B | Sampdoria | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cremonese |
| 22/12/24 Italy Serie B | Cremonese | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sampdoria |
| 27/02/24 Italy Serie B | Sampdoria | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Cremonese |
| 03/09/23 Italy Serie B | Cremonese | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sampdoria |
| 08/04/23 Italy Serie A | Sampdoria | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Cremonese |
| 24/10/22 Italy Serie A | Cremonese | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sampdoria |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cremonese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Lumezzane Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 29/07 | Cittadella Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 24/07 | Giana Erminio Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Como Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Pisa Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
Sampdoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Parma Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Novara Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/07 | Cagliari Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | AC Taverne Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Cesena Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | Monza Italy Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Pescara Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/04 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cremonese win (49%). Probabilities: Cremonese 49%, draw 29%, Sampdoria 22%.
How many goals are expected in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Cremonese 1.41 · Sampdoria 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.