Football · Coppa Italia · 17/08, 18:00
Prediction: Pisa vs Empoli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Pisa1.62
Empoli1.02
1X2
Pisa
Draw
Empoli
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pisa
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Empoli
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pisa
1–1–4
Empoli
(6 last)
- Empoli2-3Pisa
- Pisa1-1Empoli
- Empoli3-1Pisa
- Empoli2-1Pisa
- Pisa2-3Empoli
- Pisa0-2Empoli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pisa 1442 · Empoli 1503
| Pisa | Draw | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Empoli (rating 1442 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Empoli: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pisa | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pisa 1–1–4 Empoli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/25 Europe Friendlies | Empoli | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Pisa |
| 20/02/21 Italy Serie B | Pisa | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Empoli |
| 23/10/20 Italy Serie B | Empoli | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Pisa |
| 16/02/20 Italy Serie B | Empoli | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Pisa |
| 24/09/19 Italy Serie B | Pisa | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Empoli |
| 05/08/15 Club Friendly List | Pisa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Empoli |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pisa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Bologna Club Friendly List |
4-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | Pro Vercelli Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/07 | Pavia Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Cremonese Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Parma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/04 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Empoli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Livorno Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 01/08 | Spezia Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Virtus Entella Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Monza Italy Serie B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Avellino Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Venezia Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Virtus Entella Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Padova Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Sampdoria Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Pescara Italy Serie B |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pisa vs Empoli?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pisa win (50%). Probabilities: Pisa 50%, draw 28%, Empoli 22%.
How many goals are expected in Pisa vs Empoli?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Pisa 1.62 · Empoli 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Empoli?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.