Football · Coppa Italia · 17/08, 18:30
Prediction: Sassuolo vs Cesena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.54Total
Sassuolo2.34
Cesena1.21
1X2
Sassuolo
Draw
Cesena
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sassuolo
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cesena
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sassuolo
3–1–1
Cesena
(5 last)
- Cesena0-2Sassuolo
- Sassuolo2-1Cesena
- Sassuolo1-2Cesena
- Cesena2-3Sassuolo
- Sassuolo1-1Cesena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sassuolo 1460 · Cesena 1504
| Sassuolo | Draw | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cesena (rating 1460 vs 1504).
- H2H favours Sassuolo: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sassuolo | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sassuolo 3–1–1 Cesena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/25 Italy Serie B | Cesena | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sassuolo |
| 24/08/24 Italy Serie B | Sassuolo | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cesena |
| 18/01/17 Coppa Italia | Sassuolo | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Cesena |
| 10/05/15 Italy Serie A | Cesena | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Sassuolo |
| 20/12/14 Italy Serie A | Sassuolo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cesena |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sassuolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Augsburg Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 05/08 | Celta Vigo Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | US Folgore Caratese Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Parma Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Trento Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/07 | Padova Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | AC Alta Anaunia Club Friendly List |
– | 22-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Parma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Cesena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Forli Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/08 | Vis Pesaro Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Forsempronese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | AC Carpi Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Padova Italy Serie B |
3-3 | 3-4 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Carrarese Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Sampdoria Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Palermo Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Juve Stabia Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sassuolo vs Cesena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sassuolo win (61%). Probabilities: Sassuolo 61%, draw 22%, Cesena 17%.
How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Cesena?
The model expects 3.54 goals (Sassuolo 2.34 · Cesena 1.21), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cesena?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.