Football · Coppa Italia · 14/08, 18:00
Prediction: Parma vs Catania
Team pages: Catania
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Parma1.9
Catania0.57
1X2
Parma
Draw
Catania
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Parma
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Catania
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parma 1476 · Catania 1489
| Parma | Draw | Catania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parma | Catania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Sampdoria Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Iraklis Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 30/07 | Arezzo Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Sassuolo Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Como Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Pisa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Catania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Vicenza Coppa Italia |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Ascoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Ascoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Lecco Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Lecco Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/03 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parma vs Catania?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Parma win (69%). Probabilities: Parma 69%, draw 20%, Catania 11%.
How many goals are expected in Parma vs Catania?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Parma 1.9 · Catania 0.57), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Catania?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.