Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: Motril vs UD Torre del Mar
Team pages: Motril · UD Torre del Mar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.89Total
Motril1.16
UD Torre del Mar0.72
1X2
Motril
Draw
UD Torre del Mar
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Motril
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
UD Torre del Mar
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Motril
1–2–3
UD Torre del Mar
(6 last)
- UD Torre del Mar2-1Motril
- Motril0-4UD Torre del Mar
- Motril0-0UD Torre del Mar
- UD Torre del Mar2-0Motril
- Motril2-1UD Torre del Mar
- UD Torre del Mar1-1Motril
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Motril 1483 · UD Torre del Mar 1513
| Motril | Draw | UD Torre del Mar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 33% | 22% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours UD Torre del Mar: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Motril | UD Torre del Mar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 25/75/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.6 | 3.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Motril 1–2–3 UD Torre del Mar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 9 | UD Torre del Mar | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Motril |
| 15/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Motril | 0-4 HT 0-2 | UD Torre del Mar |
| 25/05/25 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs | Motril | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UD Torre del Mar |
| 18/05/25 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs | UD Torre del Mar | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Motril |
| 27/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Motril | 2-1 | UD Torre del Mar |
| 08/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 9 | UD Torre del Mar | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Motril |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Atletico Malagueno | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | UD San Pedro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Arenas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Almeria B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | UD Torre del Mar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Atletico Porcuna CF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | Atletico Mancha Real | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | FC Marbelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Alhaurino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Motril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Recreativo Granada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | CD Huetor Vega | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | CD Malaga Juniors FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cantoria 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Churriana de la Vega CF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Motril | UD Torre del Mar |
|---|---|---|
| Churriana de la Vega CF | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Porcuna CF | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| CD El Palo | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| UD San Pedro | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Marbelli | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Motril
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/03 | UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 22/03 | FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
UD Torre del Mar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Motril Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/04 | FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Motril vs UD Torre del Mar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Motril win (46%). Probabilities: Motril 46%, draw 31%, UD Torre del Mar 23%.
How many goals are expected in Motril vs UD Torre del Mar?
The model expects 1.89 goals (Motril 1.16 · UD Torre del Mar 0.72), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Motril vs UD Torre del Mar?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.