Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: Arenas vs Atletico Mancha Real
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Arenas1.42
Atletico Mancha Real0.71
1X2
Arenas
Draw
Atletico Mancha Real
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Arenas
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Mancha Real
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arenas
4–2–0
Atletico Mancha Real
(6 last)
- Atletico Mancha Real0-2Arenas
- Arenas0-0Atletico Mancha Real
- Arenas2-1Atletico Mancha Real
- Atletico Mancha Real1-2Arenas
- Arenas0-0Atletico Mancha Real
- Atletico Mancha Real1-2Arenas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arenas 1521 · Atletico Mancha Real 1477
| Arenas | Draw | Atletico Mancha Real | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 30% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arenas (rating 1521 vs 1477).
- H2H favours Arenas: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arenas | Atletico Mancha Real | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/0/75% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.5 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arenas 4–2–0 Atletico Mancha Real
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Atletico Mancha Real | 0-2 | Arenas |
| 18/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Arenas | 0-0 | Atletico Mancha Real |
| 09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Arenas | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Mancha Real |
| 29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Atletico Mancha Real | 1-2 | Arenas |
| 25/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Arenas | 0-0 | Atletico Mancha Real |
| 15/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 9 | Atletico Mancha Real | 1-2 | Arenas |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Atletico Malagueno | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | UD San Pedro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Arenas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Almeria B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | UD Torre del Mar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Atletico Porcuna CF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | Atletico Mancha Real | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | FC Marbelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Alhaurino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Motril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Recreativo Granada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | CD Huetor Vega | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | CD Malaga Juniors FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cantoria 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Churriana de la Vega CF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arenas | Atletico Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Alhaurino | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Ciudad Torredonjimeno | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Recreativo Granada | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| CD Huetor Vega | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| CD Huetor Tajar | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| UD Melilla B | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Martos CD | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Mancha Real (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arenas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 05/04 | CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 01/04 | CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/03 | UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9 |
3-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
Atletico Mancha Real
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 05/04 | UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/04 | Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arenas vs Atletico Mancha Real?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arenas win (54%). Probabilities: Arenas 54%, draw 28%, Atletico Mancha Real 18%.
How many goals are expected in Arenas vs Atletico Mancha Real?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Arenas 1.42 · Atletico Mancha Real 0.71), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Arenas vs Atletico Mancha Real?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.