Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 20/09, 12:00

Prediction: CD Huetor Vega vs FC Marbelli

Team pages: CD Huetor Vega · FC Marbelli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

CD Huetor Vega1.1

FC Marbelli1.07

1X2

35% 31% 34%

CD Huetor Vega Draw FC Marbelli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Huetor Vega 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDLWDL

FC Marbelli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDLWDW

Head-to-head

CD Huetor Vega 1–1–2 FC Marbelli (4 last)

CD Huetor Vega1-1FC Marbelli
FC Marbelli2-0CD Huetor Vega
CD Huetor Vega3-0FC Marbelli
FC Marbelli1-0CD Huetor Vega

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Huetor Vega 1472 · FC Marbelli 1525

	CD Huetor Vega	Draw	FC Marbelli
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marbelli (rating 1472 vs 1525).
H2H favours FC Marbelli: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Huetor Vega	FC Marbelli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +6’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:41 +36’	2.69	2.85	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Huetor Vega 1–1–2 FC Marbelli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	CD Huetor Vega	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Marbelli
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	FC Marbelli	2-0 HT 2-0	CD Huetor Vega
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	CD Huetor Vega	3-0	FC Marbelli
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	FC Marbelli	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Huetor Vega

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Almeria B	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Arenas	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Recreativo Granada	2	1	1	0	4	0	4
5	FC Marbelli	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	UD Torre del Mar	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Atletico Malagueno	2	1	0	1	6	2	3
8	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	1	4	3
9	Churriana de la Vega CF	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
10	Atletico Porcuna CF	2	1	0	1	2	6	3
11	Motril	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Cantoria 2017	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	Atletico Mancha Real	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Alhaurino	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
16	CD Huetor Vega	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
17	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	CD Malaga Juniors FC	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Huetor Vega	FC Marbelli
Martos CD	4-0 W	1-2 L
CP Mijas	0-3 L	0-1 L
Atletico Mancha Real	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marbelli (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Huetor Vega

DLWDLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Melilla Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
10/05	Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9	–	4-0	–	–	W
03/05	CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
12/04	Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/04	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
29/03	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
22/03	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-2	2-2	5	8	D

FC Marbelli

LDLWWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	2-1	10	6	W
05/09	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
26/04	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/04	Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/04	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
28/03	CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Huetor Vega vs FC Marbelli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Huetor Vega win (35%). Probabilities: CD Huetor Vega 35%, draw 31%, FC Marbelli 34%.

How many goals are expected in CD Huetor Vega vs FC Marbelli?

The model expects 2.18 goals (CD Huetor Vega 1.1 · FC Marbelli 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Huetor Vega vs FC Marbelli?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.