Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 20/09, 12:15

Prediction: Alhaurino vs Churriana de la Vega CF

Team pages: Alhaurino · Churriana de la Vega CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Alhaurino1.05

Churriana de la Vega CF1

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Alhaurino Draw Churriana de la Vega CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alhaurino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWDDL

Churriana de la Vega CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Alhaurino 1–1–0 Churriana de la Vega CF (2 last)

Alhaurino4-0Churriana de la Vega CF
Churriana de la Vega CF0-0Alhaurino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alhaurino 1515 · Churriana de la Vega CF 1511

	Alhaurino	Draw	Churriana de la Vega CF
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alhaurino	Churriana de la Vega CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.38 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.69

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +14’	2.70	3.10	2.38
22:51 +3’	2.45▼	3.10	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +99’	2.56	2.92	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alhaurino 1–1–0 Churriana de la Vega CF

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	Alhaurino	4-0	Churriana de la Vega CF
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Churriana de la Vega CF	0-0 HT 0-0	Alhaurino

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Almeria B	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Arenas	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Recreativo Granada	2	1	1	0	4	0	4
5	FC Marbelli	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	UD Torre del Mar	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Atletico Malagueno	2	1	0	1	6	2	3
8	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	1	4	3
9	Churriana de la Vega CF	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
10	Atletico Porcuna CF	2	1	0	1	2	6	3
11	Motril	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Cantoria 2017	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	Atletico Mancha Real	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Alhaurino	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
16	CD Huetor Vega	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
17	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	CD Malaga Juniors FC	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alhaurino	Churriana de la Vega CF
Recreativo Granada	0-0 D	2-2 D
UD Torre del Mar	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD El Palo	2-1 W	2-0 W
UD San Pedro	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Churriana de la Vega CF (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alhaurino

DWLWLWWDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Almeria B Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
06/09	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
03/05	Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	4-0	–	–	W
19/04	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/04	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/04	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/03	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/03	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D

Churriana de la Vega CF

DLDWLDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	4-1	3	5	W
06/09	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
17/05	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
10/05	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
03/05	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-4	–	–	L
19/04	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/04	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	1-4	8	3	L
28/03	CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alhaurino vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alhaurino win (36%). Probabilities: Alhaurino 36%, draw 31%, Churriana de la Vega CF 33%.

How many goals are expected in Alhaurino vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Alhaurino 1.05 · Churriana de la Vega CF 1), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alhaurino vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.