Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 06/09, 12:00

Prediction: Alhaurino vs Recreativo Granada

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Alhaurino1.3

Recreativo Granada1.37

1X2

34% 28% 37%

Alhaurino Draw Recreativo Granada

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alhaurino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWLWWD

Recreativo Granada 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDLDWD

Head-to-head

Alhaurino 1–1 Recreativo Granada (2 last)

Recreativo Granada3-1Alhaurino
Alhaurino2-1Recreativo Granada

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alhaurino 1516 · Recreativo Granada 1510

	Alhaurino	Draw	Recreativo Granada
Our model	34%	28%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alhaurino	Recreativo Granada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/0/33%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	0 / 3	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.67
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.61 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:05 +3’	2.63	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +87’	2.67	2.88	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alhaurino 1–0–1 Recreativo Granada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	Recreativo Granada	3-1 HT 0-0	Alhaurino
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Alhaurino	2-1 HT 2-0	Recreativo Granada

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Porcuna CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Malagueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Mancha Real	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alhaurino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cantoria 2017	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Huetor Vega	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Malaga City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Churriana de la Vega CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Recreativo Granada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Marbelli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almeria B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD San Pedro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Torre del Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alhaurino	Recreativo Granada
Atletico Mancha Real	1-1 D	2-2 D
Arenas	1-0 W	2-3 L
Churriana de la Vega CF	4-0 W	2-2 D
CD Torreperogil	0-2 L	1-2 L
Atletico Porcuna CF	3-0 W	3-1 W
UD Torre del Mar	0-1 L	2-3 L
CD El Palo	2-1 W	1-0 W
UD San Pedro	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alhaurino (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alhaurino

DLDWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
03/05	Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	4-0	–	–	W
19/04	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/04	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/04	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/03	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/03	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/03	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
08/03	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D

Recreativo Granada

DWLWLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	4-4	–	–	D
03/05	FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/04	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	2-2	2-2	4	3	D
18/04	Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/04	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
04/04	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
29/03	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/03	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
15/03	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/03	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alhaurino vs Recreativo Granada?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Recreativo Granada win (37%). Probabilities: Alhaurino 34%, draw 28%, Recreativo Granada 37%.

How many goals are expected in Alhaurino vs Recreativo Granada?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Alhaurino 1.3 · Recreativo Granada 1.37), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alhaurino vs Recreativo Granada?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.