Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 16/08, 02:00

Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Barcelona Guayaquil

Team pages: Mushuc Runa · Barcelona Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Mushuc Runa1.25

Barcelona Guayaquil1.04

1X2

40% 29% 30%

Mushuc Runa Draw Barcelona Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mushuc Runa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWDLW

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLLDWL

Head-to-head

Mushuc Runa 1–2–3 Barcelona Guayaquil (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa0-5Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil1-0Mushuc Runa
Barcelona Guayaquil2-2Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa1-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Mushuc Runa2-2Barcelona Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mushuc Runa 1492 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1498

	Mushuc Runa	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mushuc Runa	Barcelona Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +6’	2.25	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 1–2–3 Barcelona Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 HT 0-1	Mushuc Runa
23/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	0-5 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
24/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa
01/12/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-2 HT 1-1	Mushuc Runa
03/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
27/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	24	20	1	3	58	22	61
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	24	9	8	7	25	20	35
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	24	8	8	8	24	25	32
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21	28	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
11	Guayaquil City	23	7	7	9	20	25	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	23	6	5	12	14	23	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mushuc Runa	Barcelona Guayaquil
Club Atletico Libertad	0-2 L	1-0 W
Emelec	1-1 D	0-0 D
Macara	1-2 L	1-2 L
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-2 W	1-2 L
Guayaquil City	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mushuc Runa

DDLWLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	13	2	L
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
14/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
11/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
03/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
23/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-2	10	5	D

Barcelona Guayaquil

LWDDWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
06/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/06	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mushuc Runa win (40%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 40%, draw 29%, Barcelona Guayaquil 30%.

How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.25 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.