Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Orense

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · Orense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Barcelona Guayaquil1.45

Orense0.88

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw Orense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLDWLD

Orense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Orense (6 last)

Orense1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Orense
Orense1-2Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-0Orense
Orense3-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Orense3-2Barcelona Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1508 · Orense 1440

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Draw	Orense
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona Guayaquil (rating 1508 vs 1440).
H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.60
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 5.32 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:38 +3’	1.83	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:41	1.65	3.60	5.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Orense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
14/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 HT 1-0	Orense
10/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-2 HT 1-2	Barcelona Guayaquil
02/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-0 HT 2-0	Orense
15/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-1 HT 2-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
18/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-2 HT 2-1	Barcelona Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	Orense
Mushuc Runa	0-0 D	1-2 L
LDU Quito	0-1 L	0-3 L
Club Atletico Libertad	1-0 W	0-3 L
Emelec	0-0 D	0-2 L
Deportivo Cuenca	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona Guayaquil (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Barcelona Guayaquil

WDDWLLDWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
06/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	4	3	W

Orense

LLDLLWLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
09/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
26/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	11	6	L
23/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
11/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
07/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
02/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Orense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (50%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 50%, draw 28%, Orense 22%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Orense?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.45 · Orense 0.88), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Orense?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.