Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Manta FC

Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · Manta FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.96

Manta FC0.56

1X2

70% 20% 9%

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Draw Manta FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDWWL

Manta FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 3–1–2 Manta FC (6 last)

Manta FC1-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Manta FC4-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-0Manta FC
Manta FC0-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-3Manta FC
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-1Manta FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1528 · Manta FC 1442

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Draw	Manta FC
Our model	70%	21%	9%
Market	71%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1528 vs 1442).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Manta FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	0.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	0.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +5’	1.30	4.75	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 3–1–2 Manta FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Manta FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
12/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Manta FC	4-2 HT 2-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
15/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-0 HT 1-0	Manta FC
31/07/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Manta FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
27/02/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-3 HT 3-0	Manta FC
23/11/14 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-1 HT 1-0	Manta FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario	5-0 W	0-1 L
Guayaquil City	0-0 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Cuenca	2-0 W	2-1 W
LDU Quito	1-0 W	1-1 D
Leones FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Mushuc Runa	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
05/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Manta FC

LDLLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
11/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	2	W
01/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
30/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador Cup	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
26/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
23/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
19/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
11/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
04/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-4	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Manta FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (70%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 70%, draw 20%, Manta FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Manta FC?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.96 · Manta FC 0.56), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Manta FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.