Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:30
Prediction: Delfin SC vs SD Aucas
Team pages: Delfin SC · SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Delfin SC0.95
SD Aucas1.23
1X2
Delfin SC
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Delfin SC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Delfin SC
0–1–5
SD Aucas
(6 last)
- SD Aucas1-0Delfin SC
- Delfin SC0-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas8-0Delfin SC
- SD Aucas2-1Delfin SC
- Delfin SC1-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas2-0Delfin SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1453 · SD Aucas 1531
| Delfin SC | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 27% | 31% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1453 vs 1531).
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Delfin SC | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 0–1–5 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Delfin SC |
| 13/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Delfin SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 11/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 8-0 HT 4-0 | Delfin SC |
| 26/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Delfin SC |
| 05/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Delfin SC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
| 24/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Delfin SC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 23 | 43 |
| 3 | Macara | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 25 | 42 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 41 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 39 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Libertad | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 33 |
| 11 | Emelec | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 29 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 32 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 39 | 30 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 37 | 26 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 27 | 24 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 37 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Delfin SC | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Orense | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| LDU Quito | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Leones FC | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Macara | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Guayaquil City | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Emelec | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 4 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Delfin SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 16/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Delfin SC vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Aucas win (41%). Probabilities: Delfin SC 27%, draw 31%, SD Aucas 41%.
How many goals are expected in Delfin SC vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Delfin SC 0.95 · SD Aucas 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Delfin SC vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.