Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: LDU Quito vs Emelec

Team pages: LDU Quito · Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

LDU Quito1.6

Emelec0.58

1X2

62% 25% 13%

LDU Quito Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWWLDW

Emelec 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLLDW

Head-to-head

LDU Quito 3–3 Emelec (6 last)

Emelec1-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito0-1Emelec
Emelec1-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-0Emelec
Emelec1-0LDU Quito
Emelec0-1LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1525 · Emelec 1500

	LDU Quito	Draw	Emelec
Our model	61%	27%	12%
Market	62%	24%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.80

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +5’	1.48	3.80	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 3–0–3 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-0 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
04/12/25 Ecuador Cup	LDU Quito	0-1 HT 0-0	Emelec
18/11/25 Ecuador Cup	Emelec	1-2 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
12/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-0 HT 1-0	Emelec
17/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-0 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
03/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-1 HT 0-1	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito	Emelec
SD Aucas	1-0 W	0-2 L
Independiente del Valle	0-2 L	1-6 L
Delfin SC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-0 W	0-0 D
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

LDU Quito

DLLDWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
14/08	Mirassol Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
30/07	Leones FC Ecuador Cup	5-0	6-0	3	5	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Emelec

WDDWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
02/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
24/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-6	0	2	L
17/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (62%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 62%, draw 25%, Emelec 13%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.18 goals (LDU Quito 1.6 · Emelec 0.58), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Emelec?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.