Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/08, 21:00
Prediction: Manta FC vs Leones FC
Team pages: Manta FC · Leones FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Manta FC1.04
Leones FC1.04
1X2
Manta FC
Draw
Leones FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Manta FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Leones FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Manta FC
2–1–2
Leones FC
(5 last)
- Leones FC3-0Manta FC
- Leones FC1-1Manta FC
- Manta FC2-1Leones FC
- Manta FC3-1Leones FC
- Leones FC3-0Manta FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manta FC 1396 · Leones FC 1512
| Manta FC | Draw | Leones FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1396 vs 1512).
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manta FC | Leones FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 4 | 1.9 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manta FC 2–1–2 Leones FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Leones FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Manta FC |
| 26/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Leones FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Manta FC |
| 07/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Manta FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Leones FC |
| 05/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Manta FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Leones FC |
| 11/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Leones FC | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 24 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Macara | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 39 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 35 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 35 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 32 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cuenca | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 31 |
| 9 | Club Atletico Libertad | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 26 | 30 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 34 | 28 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 28 |
| 12 | Emelec | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 28 |
| 13 | Orense | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 35 | 26 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 26 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 29 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Manta FC | Leones FC |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito | 1-1 D | 0-6 L |
| Guayaquil City | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Delfin SC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| SD Aucas | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Leones FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 30/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador Cup |
0-5 | 0-6 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 04/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 02/06 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manta FC vs Leones FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Manta FC win (34%). Probabilities: Manta FC 34%, draw 32%, Leones FC 34%.
How many goals are expected in Manta FC vs Leones FC?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Manta FC 1.04 · Leones FC 1.04), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Manta FC vs Leones FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.