Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 16/08, 22:00

Prediction: Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Team pages: Macara · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Macara1.2

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.4

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Macara Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Macara 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Macara 0–6 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador4-0Macara
Macara1-4Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-0Macara
Macara1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-0Macara
Macara1-3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Macara 1575 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1546

	Macara	Draw	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Macara	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	3.30	3.25	2.10
19:38 +6’	3.00▼	3.20▼	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 0–0–6 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	4-0 HT 0-0	Macara
27/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-4 HT 1-2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-0 HT 1-0	Macara
30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
02/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-0 HT 1-0	Macara
31/07/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-3 HT 1-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	24	20	1	3	58	22	61
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	24	9	8	7	25	20	35
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Club Atletico Libertad	24	9	6	9	26	27	33
8	Leones FC	24	8	8	8	24	25	32
9	Mushuc Runa	24	8	7	9	32	34	31
10	Deportivo Cuenca	24	9	4	11	22	30	31
11	Guayaquil City	24	7	8	9	20	25	29
12	Emelec	24	7	8	9	19	28	29
13	Orense	24	7	6	11	28	36	27
14	Tecnico Universitario	24	8	2	14	20	32	26
15	Delfin SC	24	6	6	12	15	24	24
16	Manta FC	24	4	5	15	11	30	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Macara	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 W	2-1 W
Guayaquil City	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Cuenca	3-0 W	2-0 W
Mushuc Runa	2-1 W	2-3 L
Tecnico Universitario	2-0 W	5-0 W
LDU Quito	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Macara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
29/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
22/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
18/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
14/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
05/06	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
05/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (40%). Probabilities: Macara 31%, draw 29%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 40%.

How many goals are expected in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Macara 1.2 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.