Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/08, 02:00

Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC

Team pages: Independiente del Valle · Delfin SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Independiente del Valle2.34

Delfin SC0.49

1X2

79% 15% 6%

Independiente del Valle Draw Delfin SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente del Valle 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Delfin SC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Independiente del Valle 2–2–2 Delfin SC (6 last)

Delfin SC0-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle0-0Delfin SC
Delfin SC1-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-2Delfin SC
Delfin SC0-1Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC1-0Independiente del Valle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1653 · Delfin SC 1447

	Independiente del Valle	Draw	Delfin SC
Our model	78%	16%	5%
Market	79%	15%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1653 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente del Valle	Delfin SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.7	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.25

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.18
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.53 ★
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +7’	1.17	6.25	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:09	1.18	6.53	13.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 2–2–2 Delfin SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
28/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
31/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Independiente del Valle
03/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-2 HT 0-2	Delfin SC
02/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
02/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	24	20	1	3	58	22	61
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	24	9	8	7	25	20	35
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	24	8	8	8	24	25	32
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21	28	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
11	Guayaquil City	23	7	7	9	20	25	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	23	6	5	12	14	23	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente del Valle	Delfin SC
LDU Quito	2-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-0 W	0-1 L
Manta FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Orense	3-2 W	1-1 D
Emelec	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente del Valle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/07	Manta FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
16/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
11/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
09/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
04/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	6	4	W

Delfin SC

LLDLWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
26/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
21/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
31/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
25/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (79%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 79%, draw 15%, Delfin SC 6%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Independiente del Valle 2.34 · Delfin SC 0.49), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.