Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/08, 23:30

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Club Atletico Libertad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Guayaquil City1.19

Club Atletico Libertad0.9

1X2

42% 31% 27%

Guayaquil City Draw Club Atletico Libertad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWDDLD

Club Atletico Libertad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 1–1–1 Club Atletico Libertad (3 last)

Club Atletico Libertad0-1Guayaquil City
Club Atletico Libertad1-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City1-1Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1500 · Club Atletico Libertad 1511

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Club Atletico Libertad
Our model	41%	32%	26%
Market	43%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Club Atletico Libertad
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +5’	2.15	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 1–1–1 Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
10/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
06/05/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	24	20	1	3	58	22	61
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	24	9	8	7	25	20	35
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	24	8	8	8	24	25	32
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21	28	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
11	Guayaquil City	23	7	7	9	20	25	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	23	6	5	12	14	23	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Club Atletico Libertad
Leones FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Manta FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	0-1 L
Delfin SC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Independiente del Valle	2-4 L	3-2 W
Mushuc Runa	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Guayaquil City (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guayaquil City

DLLWDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	0	9	L
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
08/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
31/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-4	0	5	L
23/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-2	1	5	D

Club Atletico Libertad

DWLLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
23/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-2	1	6	W
20/05	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guayaquil City win (42%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 42%, draw 31%, Club Atletico Libertad 27%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Guayaquil City 1.19 · Club Atletico Libertad 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.