Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 16/08, 23:15
Prediction: Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario
Team pages: Emelec · Tecnico Universitario
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
Emelec1.29
Tecnico Universitario0.7
1X2
Emelec
Draw
Tecnico Universitario
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Emelec
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Tecnico Universitario
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Emelec
3–2–1
Tecnico Universitario
(6 last)
- Tecnico Universitario0-1Emelec
- Tecnico Universitario0-1Emelec
- Emelec0-1Tecnico Universitario
- Emelec3-1Tecnico Universitario
- Emelec0-0Tecnico Universitario
- Tecnico Universitario1-1Emelec
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emelec 1511 · Tecnico Universitario 1423
| Emelec | Draw | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 51% | 29% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emelec (rating 1511 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Emelec: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 2.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 3–2–1 Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 17/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 28/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 23/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 09/09/24 Ecuador Cup | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 08/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 24 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Macara | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 21 | 39 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 20 | 35 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 35 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 27 | 33 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 32 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 31 |
| 10 | Deportivo Cuenca | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 31 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 29 |
| 12 | Emelec | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 29 |
| 13 | Orense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 36 | 27 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 20 | 32 | 26 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 24 | 24 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 30 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| SD Aucas | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Mushuc Runa | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Independiente del Valle | 1-6 L | 0-3 L |
| Orense | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Macara | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Emelec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 20/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 0-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 15/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (50%). Probabilities: Emelec 50%, draw 30%, Tecnico Universitario 20%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario?
The model expects 1.98 goals (Emelec 1.29 · Tecnico Universitario 0.7), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.