Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 17/08, 02:00

Prediction: SD Aucas vs LDU Quito

Team pages: SD Aucas · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

SD Aucas1.12

LDU Quito0.94

1X2

39% 30% 30%

SD Aucas Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SD Aucas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLWWD

LDU Quito 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDWWWL

Head-to-head

SD Aucas 2–2–2 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito0-0SD Aucas
SD Aucas1-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito3-1SD Aucas
SD Aucas0-1LDU Quito
LDU Quito1-2SD Aucas
SD Aucas0-0LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1528 · LDU Quito 1524

	SD Aucas	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Aucas	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	3.1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.34
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.14 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:48 +3’	2.10	3.30	3.25
04:39 +2’	2.25▲	3.25▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51	2.60	3.04	2.77
01:39	2.60	3.07▲	2.82▲
05:39 +2’	2.52▼	3.09▲	2.90▲
06:32	2.46▼	3.10▲	2.97▲
08:24	2.32▼	3.14▲	3.16▲
00:44	2.35▲	3.13▼	3.13▼
01:00	2.38▲	3.12▼	3.09▼
09:40	2.34▼	3.13▲	3.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 2–2–2 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	0-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
09/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	1-0 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
18/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	3-1 HT 2-0	SD Aucas
17/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	0-1 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
16/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-2 HT 1-2	SD Aucas
14/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	0-0 HT 0-0	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	24	20	1	3	58	22	61
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	24	9	8	7	25	20	35
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Club Atletico Libertad	24	9	6	9	26	27	33
8	Leones FC	24	8	8	8	24	25	32
9	Mushuc Runa	24	8	7	9	32	34	31
10	Deportivo Cuenca	24	9	4	11	22	30	31
11	Guayaquil City	24	7	8	9	20	25	29
12	Emelec	24	7	8	9	19	28	29
13	Orense	24	7	6	11	28	36	27
14	Tecnico Universitario	24	8	2	14	20	32	26
15	Delfin SC	24	6	6	12	15	24	24
16	Manta FC	24	4	5	15	11	30	17

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Aucas	LDU Quito
Leones FC	3-0 W	6-0 W
Macara	1-4 L	0-1 L
Independiente del Valle	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SD Aucas

DWWLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	CD La Union Ecuador Cup	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
23/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
19/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
16/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
12/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	9	D

LDU Quito

LDDLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
30/07	Leones FC Ecuador Cup	5-0	6-0	3	5	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
09/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
05/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (39%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 39%, draw 30%, LDU Quito 30%.

How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 2.06 goals (SD Aucas 1.12 · LDU Quito 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.