Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 08/11, 11:30

Prediction: AD Parla vs CD Mostoles URJC

Team pages: AD Parla · CD Mostoles URJC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

AD Parla1.22

CD Mostoles URJC1.79

1X2

25% 26% 49%

AD Parla Draw CD Mostoles URJC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Parla 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLDLDW

CD Mostoles URJC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

AD Parla 0–2–4 CD Mostoles URJC (6 last)

AD Parla1-1CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC3-1AD Parla
AD Parla0-1CD Mostoles URJC
AD Parla1-2CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC2-2AD Parla
AD Parla0-1CD Mostoles URJC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Parla 1477 · CD Mostoles URJC 1594

	AD Parla	Draw	CD Mostoles URJC
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	24%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Mostoles URJC (rating 1477 vs 1594).
H2H favours CD Mostoles URJC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Parla	CD Mostoles URJC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	6.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.73 → 1.83▲	Pinn 2.07 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +12’	4.00	3.50	1.73
06:35 +16’	3.70▼	3.40▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:49 +44’	3.37	3.13	2.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Parla 0–2–4 CD Mostoles URJC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Mostoles URJC
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	3-1 HT 1-0	AD Parla
17/08/25 Spain Copa Federacion	AD Parla	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Mostoles URJC
21/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-2 HT 0-1	CD Mostoles URJC
03/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	2-2	AD Parla
31/01/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	0-1	CD Mostoles URJC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	9	6	2	1	21	6	20
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
3	Las Rozas	9	5	2	2	20	15	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	CD Galapagar	9	4	3	2	19	16	15
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
7	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
8	Trival Valderas	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
9	Leganes B	9	4	2	3	19	12	14
10	Fuenlabrada	9	3	4	2	12	9	13
11	Torrejon	9	4	1	4	15	8	13
12	AD Parla	9	2	4	3	14	16	10
13	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	9	2	2	5	15	22	8
14	Real Aranjuez	9	1	4	4	13	20	7
15	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	9	2	1	6	14	25	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	9	1	1	7	8	28	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Parla	CD Mostoles URJC
Siello FC	4-1 W	6-1 W
Union Adarve	1-1 D	1-2 L
Torrejon	0-4 L	1-0 W
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	3-1 W
Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	2-5 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Mostoles URJC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Parla

LLDWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
25/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
18/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
11/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L

CD Mostoles URJC

DDWWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	5-1	7	2	W
25/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	6-1	5	2	W
18/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	5	8	W
11/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	2	9	L
04/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	11	11	D
27/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
20/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
10/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Parla vs CD Mostoles URJC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Mostoles URJC win (49%). Probabilities: AD Parla 25%, draw 26%, CD Mostoles URJC 49%.

How many goals are expected in AD Parla vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (AD Parla 1.22 · CD Mostoles URJC 1.79), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Parla vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.