Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: CD Colonia Moscardo vs CD Galapagar

Team pages: CD Colonia Moscardo · CD Galapagar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

CD Colonia Moscardo1.87

CD Galapagar1.2

1X2

52% 25% 23%

CD Colonia Moscardo Draw CD Galapagar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Colonia Moscardo 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDDDWD

CD Galapagar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWLWDW

Head-to-head

CD Colonia Moscardo 2–2 CD Galapagar (4 last)

CD Galapagar0-1CD Colonia Moscardo
CD Colonia Moscardo3-1CD Galapagar
CD Colonia Moscardo1-2CD Galapagar
CD Galapagar2-1CD Colonia Moscardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Colonia Moscardo 1550 · CD Galapagar 1534

	CD Colonia Moscardo	Draw	CD Galapagar
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Colonia Moscardo	CD Galapagar
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	1.8 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +4’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Colonia Moscardo 2–0–2 CD Galapagar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Colonia Moscardo
05/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Colonia Moscardo	3-1 HT 1-1	CD Galapagar
10/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Colonia Moscardo	1-2 HT 0-0	CD Galapagar
08/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Colonia Moscardo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Colonia Moscardo	CD Galapagar
Leganes B	2-2 D	3-2 W
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-0 W	1-3 L
Rayo Vallecano B	1-1 D	2-1 W
Las Rozas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Real Aranjuez	1-1 D	5-2 W
Pozuelo Alarcon	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Galapagar (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Colonia Moscardo

WDWDWDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
31/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
25/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
18/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
10/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	4-0	5-1	5	4	W
27/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
20/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-1	12	6	W
13/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
06/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	8	W

CD Galapagar

DWDWLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
01/11	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
25/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
18/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-3	3	8	L
11/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-2	3	7	W
04/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
27/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	2-1	0	3	W
20/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-2	0	6	W
06/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Colonia Moscardo vs CD Galapagar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Colonia Moscardo win (52%). Probabilities: CD Colonia Moscardo 52%, draw 25%, CD Galapagar 23%.

How many goals are expected in CD Colonia Moscardo vs CD Galapagar?

The model expects 3.07 goals (CD Colonia Moscardo 1.87 · CD Galapagar 1.2), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Colonia Moscardo vs CD Galapagar?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.