Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Union Adarve vs Las Rozas

Team pages: Union Adarve · Las Rozas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Union Adarve1.56

Las Rozas1.38

1X2

40% 27% 32%

Union Adarve Draw Las Rozas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Adarve 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDWL

Las Rozas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDWLD

Head-to-head

Union Adarve 3–2–0 Las Rozas (5 last)

Las Rozas0-2Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-0Las Rozas
Union Adarve3-0Las Rozas
Union Adarve3-3Las Rozas
Las Rozas1-1Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Adarve 1542 · Las Rozas 1514

	Union Adarve	Draw	Las Rozas
Our model	41%	27%	33%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Adarve: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Adarve	Las Rozas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +9’	2.25	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Adarve 3–2–0 Las Rozas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	0-2 HT 0-1	Union Adarve
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-0 HT 1-0	Las Rozas
17/08/25 Spain Copa Federacion	Union Adarve	3-0 HT 1-0	Las Rozas
20/08/22 Europe Friendlies	Union Adarve	3-3 HT 1-0	Las Rozas
14/08/19 Europe Friendlies	Las Rozas	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Adarve	Las Rozas
Torrejon	0-4 L	2-2 D
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	0-3 L
Mexico FC	1-1 D	4-3 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-1 D	1-1 D
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	2-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Las Rozas (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Adarve

WDDDLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-2	5	10	L
31/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
25/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
18/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	7	6	W
11/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	8	9	W
04/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	9	L
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Las Rozas

WWDLWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/11	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
24/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	4-3	3	4	W
18/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	4-2	11	4	W
07/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
04/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Adarve vs Las Rozas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Adarve win (40%). Probabilities: Union Adarve 40%, draw 27%, Las Rozas 32%.

How many goals are expected in Union Adarve vs Las Rozas?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Union Adarve 1.56 · Las Rozas 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Adarve vs Las Rozas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.