Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 11:30

Prediction: Torrejon vs Rayo Vallecano B

Team pages: Torrejon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Torrejon1.9

Rayo Vallecano B1.14

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Torrejon Draw Rayo Vallecano B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Torrejon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWLWD

Rayo Vallecano B 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Torrejon 2–4–0 Rayo Vallecano B (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano B1-1Torrejon
Torrejon1-1Rayo Vallecano B
Rayo Vallecano B3-3Torrejon
Torrejon3-1Rayo Vallecano B
Rayo Vallecano B1-3Torrejon
Torrejon2-2Rayo Vallecano B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torrejon 1512 · Rayo Vallecano B 1468

	Torrejon	Draw	Rayo Vallecano B
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torrejon (rating 1512 vs 1468).
H2H favours Torrejon: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 13.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torrejon	Rayo Vallecano B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	33/11/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.8	8.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +17’	1.67	3.60	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torrejon 2–4–0 Rayo Vallecano B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/25 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Rayo Vallecano B	1-1 HT 1-1	Torrejon
01/06/25 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Torrejon	1-1 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano B
13/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Rayo Vallecano B	3-3 HT 0-3	Torrejon
01/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	3-1 HT 2-0	Rayo Vallecano B
28/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Rayo Vallecano B	1-3 HT 0-2	Torrejon
17/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	2-2 HT 2-2	Rayo Vallecano B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torrejon	Rayo Vallecano B
CD Mostoles URJC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Fuenlabrada	1-3 L	2-0 W
Mexico FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Colonia Moscardo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano B (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torrejon

LWLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
01/11	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
25/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-0	3	6	W
11/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
04/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	5	9	W
27/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
13/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

Rayo Vallecano B

DLLLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
31/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	8	11	D
25/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
18/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-4	7	8	L
11/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	5	13	W
04/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
27/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	–	1-2	0	3	L
19/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-4	9	6	L
13/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-3	4	10	L
06/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torrejon vs Rayo Vallecano B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torrejon win (54%). Probabilities: Torrejon 54%, draw 25%, Rayo Vallecano B 21%.

How many goals are expected in Torrejon vs Rayo Vallecano B?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Torrejon 1.9 · Rayo Vallecano B 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Torrejon vs Rayo Vallecano B?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.