Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF

Team pages: UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1.91

Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF1.69

1X2

42% 25% 33%

UD San Sebastián Reyes B Draw Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDLL

Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1429 · Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF 1458

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Draw	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF
Our model	43%	24%	34%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.7	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +14’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +12’	2.39	3.47	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF
CD Galapagar	0-2 L	1-4 L
Leganes B	0-4 L	1-2 L
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Rayo Vallecano B	4-3 W	4-2 W
Las Rozas	2-4 L	0-3 L
Real Aranjuez	3-5 L	1-1 D
Pozuelo Alarcon	2-3 L	1-1 D
AD Parla	0-3 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD San Sebastián Reyes B

LWLLLLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
01/11	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	4	6	L
24/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
18/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	4-3	3	8	W
11/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-4	5	4	L
04/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-5	3	4	L
27/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	1	7	L
20/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	–	0-3	8	10	L
13/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF

WDDWLLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
01/11	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-5	5	2	L
25/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
18/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
10/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
07/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
04/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-2	6	7	W
20/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
12/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	5-2	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD San Sebastián Reyes B win (42%). Probabilities: UD San Sebastián Reyes B 42%, draw 25%, Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF 33%.

How many goals are expected in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF?

The model expects 3.6 goals (UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1.91 · Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF 1.69), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.