Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 11:45

Prediction: CD Mostoles URJC vs Trival Valderas

Team pages: CD Mostoles URJC · Trival Valderas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

CD Mostoles URJC1.75

Trival Valderas1

1X2

54% 25% 21%

CD Mostoles URJC Draw Trival Valderas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Mostoles URJC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLWWWW

Trival Valderas 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDDDD

Head-to-head

CD Mostoles URJC 4–2 Trival Valderas (6 last)

CD Mostoles URJC1-0Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas1-0CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC3-1Trival Valderas
CD Mostoles URJC3-1Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas2-1CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC1-0Trival Valderas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Mostoles URJC 1589 · Trival Valderas 1495

	CD Mostoles URJC	Draw	Trival Valderas
Our model	54%	26%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Mostoles URJC (rating 1589 vs 1495).
H2H favours CD Mostoles URJC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Mostoles URJC	Trival Valderas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +8’	1.65	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Mostoles URJC 4–0–2 Trival Valderas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Club Friendly List	CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas
12/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Mostoles URJC
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	3-1 HT 2-0	Trival Valderas
28/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	3-1 HT 0-1	Trival Valderas
10/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	2-1 HT 1-1	CD Mostoles URJC
05/02/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Mostoles URJC	Trival Valderas
AD Parla	3-1 W	0-0 D
Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	5-1 W	1-1 D
Siello FC	6-1 W	3-1 W
CD Galapagar	3-0 W	2-2 D
Leganes B	1-1 D	2-2 D
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-0 W	2-2 D
Rayo Vallecano B	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Mostoles URJC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Mostoles URJC

DWWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
01/11	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	5-1	7	2	W
25/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	6-1	5	2	W
18/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	5	8	W
11/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	2	9	L
04/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	11	11	D
27/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
20/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	6	10	D

Trival Valderas

WDDWWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
01/11	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
25/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
18/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
11/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	8	13	L
04/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
20/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Mostoles URJC vs Trival Valderas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Mostoles URJC win (54%). Probabilities: CD Mostoles URJC 54%, draw 25%, Trival Valderas 21%.

How many goals are expected in CD Mostoles URJC vs Trival Valderas?

The model expects 2.75 goals (CD Mostoles URJC 1.75 · Trival Valderas 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Mostoles URJC vs Trival Valderas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.