Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 11:30

Prediction: AD Parla vs Pozuelo Alarcon

Team pages: AD Parla · Pozuelo Alarcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

AD Parla1.48

Pozuelo Alarcon1.45

1X2

37% 28% 35%

AD Parla Draw Pozuelo Alarcon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Parla 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDLDWL

Pozuelo Alarcon 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWWWLL

Head-to-head

AD Parla 1–5–0 Pozuelo Alarcon (6 last)

AD Parla0-0Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon0-0AD Parla
AD Parla1-1Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon0-0AD Parla
AD Parla1-0Pozuelo Alarcon
AD Parla1-1Pozuelo Alarcon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Parla 1468 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1504

	AD Parla	Draw	Pozuelo Alarcon
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Parla	Pozuelo Alarcon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.2	6.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +24’	2.45	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Parla 1–5–0 Pozuelo Alarcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	0-0 HT 0-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
14/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-1 HT 0-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
09/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
08/12/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-0 HT 1-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
09/05/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-1 HT 0-1	Pozuelo Alarcon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Parla	Pozuelo Alarcon
Siello FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Union Adarve	1-1 D	1-3 L
Torrejon	0-4 L	1-0 W
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	1-0 W
Mexico FC	0-1 L	4-3 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	2-2 D	1-5 L
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	3-0 W	3-2 W
Trival Valderas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AD Parla (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Parla

LDWDLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-3	6	7	L
01/11	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	6	8	W
25/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
18/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
11/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L

Pozuelo Alarcon

DDDWLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	9	9	L
31/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
25/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	4-3	6	11	W
04/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-4	1-5	1	4	L
27/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
20/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	13	6	D
12/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Parla vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Parla win (37%). Probabilities: AD Parla 37%, draw 28%, Pozuelo Alarcon 35%.

How many goals are expected in AD Parla vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model expects 2.92 goals (AD Parla 1.48 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1.45), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Parla vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.