Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Pozuelo Alarcon vs Siello FC

Team pages: Pozuelo Alarcon · Siello FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Pozuelo Alarcon2.15

Siello FC1.07

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Pozuelo Alarcon Draw Siello FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Pozuelo Alarcon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWWWL

Siello FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Pozuelo Alarcon 1–1 Siello FC (2 last)

Siello FC1-0Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-1Siello FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pozuelo Alarcon 1535 · Siello FC 1428

	Pozuelo Alarcon	Draw	Siello FC
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pozuelo Alarcon (rating 1535 vs 1428).
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pozuelo Alarcon	Siello FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.73
2	7.50 → 5.25▼	Pinn 7.71 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +9’	1.30	4.50	7.50
02:22 +3’	1.36▲	4.33▼	6.25▼
15:30 +54’	1.45▲	4.00▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +26’	1.32	4.73	7.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pozuelo Alarcon 1–0–1 Siello FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Siello FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-1 HT 1-1	Siello FC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	9	6	2	1	21	6	20
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
3	Las Rozas	9	5	2	2	20	15	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	CD Galapagar	9	4	3	2	19	16	15
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
7	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
8	Trival Valderas	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
9	Leganes B	9	4	2	3	19	12	14
10	Fuenlabrada	9	3	4	2	12	9	13
11	Torrejon	9	4	1	4	15	8	13
12	AD Parla	9	2	4	3	14	16	10
13	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	9	2	2	5	15	22	8
14	Real Aranjuez	9	1	4	4	13	20	7
15	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	9	2	1	6	14	25	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	9	1	1	7	8	28	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pozuelo Alarcon	Siello FC
Union Adarve	1-3 L	0-4 L
Torrejon	1-0 W	1-1 D
Fuenlabrada	1-0 W	0-1 L
Mexico FC	4-3 W	3-2 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-5 L	1-5 L
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	3-2 W	0-2 L
Trival Valderas	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Pozuelo Alarcon (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pozuelo Alarcon

WDDDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-3	0	4	L
25/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	4-3	6	11	W
04/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-4	1-5	1	4	L
27/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
20/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	13	6	D
12/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
10/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	5	3	W

Siello FC

WLLLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-4	3	8	L
25/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-6	3	2	L
18/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
11/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
04/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
27/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
20/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-5	2	6	L
13/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	10	5	L
06/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-3	8	8	L
10/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Siello FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pozuelo Alarcon win (61%). Probabilities: Pozuelo Alarcon 61%, draw 22%, Siello FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Siello FC?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Pozuelo Alarcon 2.15 · Siello FC 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Siello FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.