Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Las Rozas vs Torrejon

Team pages: Las Rozas · Torrejon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Las Rozas1.44

Torrejon1.21

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Las Rozas Draw Torrejon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Rozas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDWL

Torrejon 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Las Rozas 5–1–0 Torrejon (6 last)

Torrejon0-3Las Rozas
Las Rozas1-0Torrejon
Torrejon1-1Las Rozas
Las Rozas2-0Torrejon
Las Rozas3-2Torrejon
Torrejon0-1Las Rozas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Rozas 1549 · Torrejon 1501

	Las Rozas	Draw	Torrejon
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Rozas (rating 1549 vs 1501).
H2H favours Las Rozas: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Rozas	Torrejon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.12 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +8’	2.15	3.30	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +27’	2.14	3.21	3.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Rozas 5–1–0 Torrejon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Torrejon	0-3 HT 0-1	Las Rozas
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	1-0 HT 0-0	Torrejon
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-1 HT 0-0	Las Rozas
02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	2-0 HT 0-0	Torrejon
19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	3-2 HT 2-1	Torrejon
08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-1 HT 0-0	Las Rozas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	9	6	2	1	21	6	20
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
3	Las Rozas	9	5	2	2	20	15	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	CD Galapagar	9	4	3	2	19	16	15
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
7	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
8	Trival Valderas	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
9	Leganes B	9	4	2	3	19	12	14
10	Fuenlabrada	9	3	4	2	12	9	13
11	Torrejon	9	4	1	4	15	8	13
12	AD Parla	9	2	4	3	14	16	10
13	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	9	2	2	5	15	22	8
14	Real Aranjuez	9	1	4	4	13	20	7
15	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	9	2	1	6	14	25	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	9	1	1	7	8	28	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Rozas	Torrejon
Fuenlabrada	0-3 L	1-3 L
Mexico FC	4-3 W	1-0 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Rozas

WWWDLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	7	9	L
24/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	4-3	3	4	W
18/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	4-2	11	4	W
07/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
04/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-1	1	4	W
17/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Torrejon

LLWLLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
25/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-0	3	6	W
11/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
04/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	5	9	W
27/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
13/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Rozas vs Torrejon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Rozas win (41%). Probabilities: Las Rozas 41%, draw 28%, Torrejon 31%.

How many goals are expected in Las Rozas vs Torrejon?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Las Rozas 1.44 · Torrejon 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Rozas vs Torrejon?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.