Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 08/11, 11:30

Prediction: CD Galapagar vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Team pages: CD Galapagar · UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

CD Galapagar2.11

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1.55

1X2

49% 24% 27%

CD Galapagar Draw UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Galapagar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWLWD

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLWDL

Head-to-head

CD Galapagar 0–2–0 UD San Sebastián Reyes B (2 last)

CD Galapagar1-1UD San Sebastián Reyes B
UD San Sebastián Reyes B0-0CD Galapagar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Galapagar 1544 · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1454

	CD Galapagar	Draw	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Our model	50%	23%	28%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Galapagar (rating 1544 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Galapagar	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.7	1.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.2	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +12’	1.85	3.50	3.40
12:20 +13’	1.73▼	3.50	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:27 +5’	1.83	3.50	3.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Galapagar 0–2–0 UD San Sebastián Reyes B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	1-1 HT 1-0	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Galapagar

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	9	6	2	1	21	6	20
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
3	Las Rozas	9	5	2	2	20	15	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	CD Galapagar	9	4	3	2	19	16	15
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
7	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
8	Trival Valderas	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
9	Leganes B	9	4	2	3	19	12	14
10	Fuenlabrada	9	3	4	2	12	9	13
11	Torrejon	9	4	1	4	15	8	13
12	AD Parla	9	2	4	3	14	16	10
13	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	9	2	2	5	15	22	8
14	Real Aranjuez	9	1	4	4	13	20	7
15	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	9	2	1	6	14	25	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	9	1	1	7	8	28	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Galapagar	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Leganes B	3-2 W	0-4 L
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rayo Vallecano B	2-1 W	4-3 W
Las Rozas	1-1 D	2-4 L
Real Aranjuez	5-2 W	3-5 L
Pozuelo Alarcon	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD Galapagar (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Galapagar

WDWDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
25/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
18/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-3	3	8	L
11/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-2	3	7	W
04/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
27/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	2-1	0	3	W
20/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-2	0	6	W
06/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
10/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	3	4	W

UD San Sebastián Reyes B

WLWLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	4	6	L
24/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
18/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	4-3	3	8	W
11/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-4	5	4	L
04/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-5	3	4	L
27/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	1	7	L
20/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	–	0-3	8	10	L
13/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
10/05	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Galapagar vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Galapagar win (49%). Probabilities: CD Galapagar 49%, draw 24%, UD San Sebastián Reyes B 27%.

How many goals are expected in CD Galapagar vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

The model expects 3.66 goals (CD Galapagar 2.11 · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1.55), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Galapagar vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.