Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 01/11, 11:30

Prediction: Siello FC vs AD Parla

Team pages: Siello FC · AD Parla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Siello FC1.34

AD Parla1.88

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Siello FC Draw AD Parla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Siello FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLDLL

AD Parla 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDLDLD

Head-to-head

Siello FC 1–1 AD Parla (2 last)

Siello FC1-0AD Parla
AD Parla2-1Siello FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siello FC 1449 · AD Parla 1475

	Siello FC	Draw	AD Parla
Our model	26%	24%	49%
Market	26%	26%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siello FC	AD Parla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.7	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/11/67%	11/56/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.86 ★
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.50
2	1.85 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +36’	3.50	3.40	1.85
00:03 +3’	3.30▼	3.25▼	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:36	3.79	3.45	1.83
09:35 +29’	3.86▲	3.50▲	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siello FC 1–0–1 AD Parla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Siello FC	1-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	2-1 HT 1-1	Siello FC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
2	Las Rozas	8	5	2	1	20	12	17
3	CD Mostoles URJC	8	5	2	1	16	5	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
7	CD Galapagar	8	4	2	2	17	14	14
8	Trival Valderas	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
9	Leganes B	8	3	2	3	15	12	11
10	Fuenlabrada	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
11	Torrejon	8	3	1	4	11	7	10
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	1	4	3	12	16	7
14	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
15	AD Parla	8	1	4	3	10	15	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	8	2	1	5	14	21	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	8	1	1	6	7	24	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siello FC	AD Parla
Union Adarve	0-4 L	1-1 D
Torrejon	1-1 D	0-4 L
Fuenlabrada	0-1 L	2-2 D
Mexico FC	3-2 W	0-1 L
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-5 L	2-2 D
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0-2 L	3-0 W
Trival Valderas	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Parla (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siello FC

WWLLLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-6	3	2	L
18/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
11/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
04/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
27/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
20/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-5	2	6	L
13/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	10	5	L
06/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-3	8	8	L
10/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
03/05	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-3	–	–	W

AD Parla

LLLDWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
18/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
11/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
10/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siello FC vs AD Parla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AD Parla win (49%). Probabilities: Siello FC 26%, draw 25%, AD Parla 49%.

How many goals are expected in Siello FC vs AD Parla?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Siello FC 1.34 · AD Parla 1.88), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Siello FC vs AD Parla?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.