Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 01/11, 11:30
Prediction: Trival Valderas vs CD Galapagar
Team pages: Trival Valderas · CD Galapagar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Trival Valderas1.84
CD Galapagar1.23
1X2
Trival Valderas
Draw
CD Galapagar
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Trival Valderas
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
CD Galapagar
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trival Valderas
2–3–1
CD Galapagar
(6 last)
- Trival Valderas2-2CD Galapagar
- CD Galapagar2-1Trival Valderas
- CD Galapagar0-0Trival Valderas
- Trival Valderas1-1CD Galapagar
- Trival Valderas1-0CD Galapagar
- CD Galapagar0-2Trival Valderas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trival Valderas 1510 · CD Galapagar 1557
| Trival Valderas | Draw | CD Galapagar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Galapagar (rating 1510 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Trival Valderas: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Trival Valderas | CD Galapagar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 38/13/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 5.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trival Valderas 2–3–1 CD Galapagar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Trival Valderas | 2-2 HT 0-2 | CD Galapagar |
| 21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Trival Valderas |
| 27/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Trival Valderas |
| 15/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Trival Valderas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CD Galapagar |
| 17/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Trival Valderas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CD Galapagar |
| 29/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Trival Valderas |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Colonia Moscardo | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | CD Mostoles URJC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Union Adarve | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 5 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 6 | AD Cala Pozuelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 7 | CD Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganes B | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Torrejon | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 7 |
| 14 | Mexico FC | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 7 |
| 15 | AD Parla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
| 16 | UD San Sebastián Reyes B | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano B | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 6 |
| 18 | Siello FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trival Valderas | CD Galapagar |
|---|---|---|
| Leganes B | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| AD Cala Pozuelo | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Rayo Vallecano B | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Las Rozas | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Real Aranjuez | 2-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Pozuelo Alarcon | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| AD Parla | 0-0 D | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Galapagar (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trival Valderas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 13 | L |
| 04/10 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
CD Galapagar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
– | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7 |
– | 5-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7 |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trival Valderas vs CD Galapagar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Trival Valderas win (50%). Probabilities: Trival Valderas 50%, draw 25%, CD Galapagar 24%.
How many goals are expected in Trival Valderas vs CD Galapagar?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Trival Valderas 1.84 · CD Galapagar 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Trival Valderas vs CD Galapagar?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.