Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Leganes B

Team pages: UD San Sebastián Reyes B · Leganes B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1.42

Leganes B1.89

1X2

28% 25% 47%

UD San Sebastián Reyes B Draw Leganes B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLWD

Leganes B 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLWD

Head-to-head

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 2–0 Leganes B (2 last)

Leganes B2-3UD San Sebastián Reyes B
UD San Sebastián Reyes B1-0Leganes B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1496 · Leganes B 1468

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Draw	Leganes B
Our model	28%	24%	48%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UD San Sebastián Reyes B: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Leganes B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.15 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:37 +7’	2.80	3.40	2.10
22:14 +2’	3.25▲	3.50▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +11’	3.80	3.50	1.81
22:25 +37’	3.11▼	3.22▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 2–0–0 Leganes B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	2-3 HT 2-1	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	1-0 HT 0-0	Leganes B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
2	Las Rozas	8	5	2	1	20	12	17
3	CD Mostoles URJC	8	5	2	1	16	5	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
7	CD Galapagar	8	4	2	2	17	14	14
8	Trival Valderas	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
9	Leganes B	8	3	2	3	15	12	11
10	Fuenlabrada	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
11	Torrejon	8	3	1	4	11	7	10
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	1	4	3	12	16	7
14	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
15	AD Parla	8	1	4	3	10	15	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	8	2	1	5	14	21	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	8	1	1	6	7	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Leganes B
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Rayo Vallecano B	4-3 W	4-1 W
Las Rozas	2-4 L	2-3 L
Real Aranjuez	3-5 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leganes B (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD San Sebastián Reyes B

WWLWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
18/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	4-3	3	8	W
11/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-4	5	4	L
04/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-5	3	4	L
27/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	1	7	L
20/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	–	0-3	8	10	L
13/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
10/05	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	–	4-0	–	–	W
03/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	–	1-0	–	–	W

Leganes B

LLWLWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
18/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
11/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-3	3	7	L
04/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
19/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
13/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-3	2	5	L
06/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
10/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Leganes B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leganes B win (47%). Probabilities: UD San Sebastián Reyes B 28%, draw 25%, Leganes B 47%.

How many goals are expected in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Leganes B?

The model expects 3.31 goals (UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1.42 · Leganes B 1.89), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Leganes B?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.