Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Union Adarve vs Pozuelo Alarcon

Team pages: Union Adarve · Pozuelo Alarcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Union Adarve1.74

Pozuelo Alarcon1.23

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Union Adarve Draw Pozuelo Alarcon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Adarve 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDLWWD

Pozuelo Alarcon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Union Adarve 1–3–2 Pozuelo Alarcon (6 last)

Pozuelo Alarcon2-2Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-1Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon1-1Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-2Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-3Union Adarve
Pozuelo Alarcon1-0Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Adarve 1541 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1540

	Union Adarve	Draw	Pozuelo Alarcon
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pozuelo Alarcon: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Adarve	Pozuelo Alarcon
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +10’	1.90	3.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +10’	2.04	3.20	3.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Adarve 1–3–2 Pozuelo Alarcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-2 HT 0-1	Union Adarve
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-1 HT 1-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
17/08/23 Spain Copa Federacion	Pozuelo Alarcon	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Adarve
14/03/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-2 HT 1-1	Pozuelo Alarcon
13/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-3	Union Adarve
12/01/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	1-0 HT 1-0	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Colonia Moscardo	9	4	5	0	18	8	17
2	Las Rozas	8	5	2	1	20	12	17
3	CD Mostoles URJC	8	5	2	1	16	5	17
4	Union Adarve	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	Pozuelo Alarcon	9	4	3	2	14	16	15
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
7	CD Galapagar	8	4	2	2	17	14	14
8	Trival Valderas	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
9	Leganes B	8	3	2	3	15	12	11
10	Fuenlabrada	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
11	Torrejon	8	3	1	4	11	7	10
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	8	2	2	4	14	17	8
13	Real Aranjuez	8	1	4	3	12	16	7
14	Mexico FC	9	1	4	4	13	16	7
15	AD Parla	8	1	4	3	10	15	7
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	8	2	1	5	14	21	7
17	Rayo Vallecano B	9	1	3	5	12	19	6
18	Siello FC	8	1	1	6	7	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Adarve	Pozuelo Alarcon
Torrejon	0-4 L	1-0 W
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	1-0 W
Mexico FC	1-1 D	4-3 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-1 D	1-5 L
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pozuelo Alarcon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Adarve

WWWDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
18/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	7	6	W
11/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	8	9	W
04/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	9	L
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W

Pozuelo Alarcon

LWDDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	4-3	6	11	W
04/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-4	1-5	1	4	L
27/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
20/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	13	6	D
12/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
10/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Adarve vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Adarve win (48%). Probabilities: Union Adarve 48%, draw 27%, Pozuelo Alarcon 25%.

How many goals are expected in Union Adarve vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Union Adarve 1.74 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Adarve vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.