Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 25/10, 11:30

Prediction: Siello FC vs CD Mostoles URJC

Team pages: Siello FC · CD Mostoles URJC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Siello FC0.89

CD Mostoles URJC1.91

1X2

16% 23% 60%

Siello FC Draw CD Mostoles URJC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Siello FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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CD Mostoles URJC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Siello FC 1–1 CD Mostoles URJC (2 last)

CD Mostoles URJC3-5Siello FC
Siello FC1-2CD Mostoles URJC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siello FC 1445 · CD Mostoles URJC 1550

	Siello FC	Draw	CD Mostoles URJC
Our model	16%	24%	60%
Market	16%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Mostoles URJC (rating 1445 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siello FC	CD Mostoles URJC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	7.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.90

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.50 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +7’	5.50	3.90	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +137’	5.38	3.90	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siello FC 1–0–1 CD Mostoles URJC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	3-5	Siello FC
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Siello FC	1-2 HT 1-0	CD Mostoles URJC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	CD Mostoles URJC	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	7	3	4	0	16	7	13
4	AD Cala Pozuelo	7	4	1	2	12	10	13
5	Trival Valderas	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	7	3	3	1	12	13	12
7	Union Adarve	7	3	3	1	12	9	12
8	CD Galapagar	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
9	Torrejon	7	3	1	3	11	6	10
10	Leganes B	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
13	Real Aranjuez	7	1	3	3	12	16	6
14	Mexico FC	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	AD Parla	7	1	3	3	9	14	6
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	7	2	0	5	13	20	6
17	Rayo Vallecano B	7	1	1	5	10	17	4
18	Siello FC	7	1	1	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siello FC	CD Mostoles URJC
Union Adarve	0-4 L	1-2 L
Torrejon	1-1 D	1-0 W
Fuenlabrada	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Mostoles URJC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siello FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
11/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
04/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
27/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
20/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-5	2	6	L
13/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	10	5	L
06/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-3	8	8	L
10/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
03/05	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-3	–	–	W
26/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	2	7	W

CD Mostoles URJC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	5	8	W
11/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	2	9	L
04/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	11	11	D
27/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
20/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
10/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
03/05	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-5	–	–	L
25/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-2	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siello FC vs CD Mostoles URJC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Mostoles URJC win (60%). Probabilities: Siello FC 16%, draw 23%, CD Mostoles URJC 60%.

How many goals are expected in Siello FC vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Siello FC 0.89 · CD Mostoles URJC 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Siello FC vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.