Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Pozuelo Alarcon vs Torrejon

Team pages: Pozuelo Alarcon · Torrejon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Pozuelo Alarcon1.22

Torrejon1.28

1X2

34% 28% 37%

Pozuelo Alarcon Draw Torrejon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pozuelo Alarcon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWLWW

Torrejon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLWDW

Head-to-head

Pozuelo Alarcon 3–1–2 Torrejon (6 last)

Pozuelo Alarcon0-1Torrejon
Torrejon1-3Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon0-1Torrejon
Torrejon0-0Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-1Torrejon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-1Torrejon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pozuelo Alarcon 1516 · Torrejon 1540

	Pozuelo Alarcon	Draw	Torrejon
Our model	34%	30%	37%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pozuelo Alarcon: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pozuelo Alarcon	Torrejon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +7’	2.60	3.25	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +87’	2.29	3.24	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pozuelo Alarcon 3–1–2 Torrejon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	0-1 HT 0-0	Torrejon
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-3 HT 1-3	Pozuelo Alarcon
28/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	0-1 HT 0-0	Torrejon
12/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-0 HT 0-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
23/08/23 Spain Copa Federacion	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-1 HT 0-1	Torrejon
12/03/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-1 HT 0-1	Torrejon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	CD Mostoles URJC	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	7	3	4	0	16	7	13
4	AD Cala Pozuelo	7	4	1	2	12	10	13
5	Trival Valderas	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	7	3	3	1	12	13	12
7	Union Adarve	7	3	3	1	12	9	12
8	CD Galapagar	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
9	Torrejon	7	3	1	3	11	6	10
10	Leganes B	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
13	Real Aranjuez	7	1	3	3	12	16	6
14	Mexico FC	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	AD Parla	7	1	3	3	9	14	6
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	7	2	0	5	13	20	6
17	Rayo Vallecano B	7	1	1	5	10	17	4
18	Siello FC	7	1	1	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pozuelo Alarcon	Torrejon
Fuenlabrada	1-0 W	1-3 L
Mexico FC	4-3 W	1-0 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-5 L	0-1 L
CD Mostoles URJC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pozuelo Alarcon (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pozuelo Alarcon

WLWDDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	4-3	6	11	W
04/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-4	1-5	1	4	L
27/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
20/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	13	6	D
12/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
10/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-3	1	3	L
25/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-0	5	9	W

Torrejon

WWLLWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-0	3	6	W
11/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
04/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	5	9	W
27/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
13/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Torrejon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Torrejon win (37%). Probabilities: Pozuelo Alarcon 34%, draw 28%, Torrejon 37%.

How many goals are expected in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Torrejon?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Pozuelo Alarcon 1.22 · Torrejon 1.28), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Torrejon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.