Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Leganes B vs Trival Valderas

Team pages: Leganes B · Trival Valderas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Leganes B1.37

Trival Valderas1.14

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Leganes B Draw Trival Valderas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Leganes B 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLDLW

Trival Valderas 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWWLD

Head-to-head

Leganes B 2–1–3 Trival Valderas (6 last)

Trival Valderas0-1Leganes B
Leganes B0-1Trival Valderas
Leganes B0-1Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas0-2Leganes B
Trival Valderas1-1Leganes B
Leganes B1-2Trival Valderas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leganes B 1497 · Trival Valderas 1509

	Leganes B	Draw	Trival Valderas
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Trival Valderas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leganes B	Trival Valderas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.9	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.31
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +5’	2.15	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +153’	2.00	3.31	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leganes B 2–1–3 Trival Valderas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Trival Valderas	0-1 HT 0-0	Leganes B
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	0-1 HT 0-1	Trival Valderas
08/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	0-1 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	0-2 HT 0-0	Leganes B
02/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-1 HT 0-1	Leganes B
21/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	1-2 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	CD Mostoles URJC	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	7	3	4	0	16	7	13
4	AD Cala Pozuelo	7	4	1	2	12	10	13
5	Trival Valderas	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	7	3	3	1	12	13	12
7	Union Adarve	7	3	3	1	12	9	12
8	CD Galapagar	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
9	Torrejon	7	3	1	3	11	6	10
10	Leganes B	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
13	Real Aranjuez	7	1	3	3	12	16	6
14	Mexico FC	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	AD Parla	7	1	3	3	9	14	6
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	7	2	0	5	13	20	6
17	Rayo Vallecano B	7	1	1	5	10	17	4
18	Siello FC	7	1	1	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leganes B	Trival Valderas
AD Cala Pozuelo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Rayo Vallecano B	4-1 W	0-1 L
Las Rozas	2-3 L	2-1 W
Real Aranjuez	2-0 W	2-1 W
Mexico FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Trival Valderas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leganes B

WLLWLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
11/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-3	3	7	L
04/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
19/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
13/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-3	2	5	L
06/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
10/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
03/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-2	–	–	W

Trival Valderas

WDWWDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
11/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	8	13	L
04/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
20/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	4	8	W
17/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leganes B vs Trival Valderas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leganes B win (41%). Probabilities: Leganes B 41%, draw 28%, Trival Valderas 31%.

How many goals are expected in Leganes B vs Trival Valderas?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Leganes B 1.37 · Trival Valderas 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leganes B vs Trival Valderas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.