Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 25/10, 11:30

Prediction: AD Parla vs Union Adarve

Team pages: AD Parla · Union Adarve

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

AD Parla1.34

Union Adarve1.61

1X2

30% 27% 42%

AD Parla Draw Union Adarve

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Parla 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDLDL

Union Adarve 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDDLWW

Head-to-head

AD Parla 0–1–5 Union Adarve (6 last)

AD Parla0-1Union Adarve
Union Adarve2-0AD Parla
AD Parla1-1Union Adarve
Union Adarve4-1AD Parla
AD Parla0-3Union Adarve
AD Parla0-3Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Parla 1470 · Union Adarve 1554

	AD Parla	Draw	Union Adarve
Our model	31%	27%	43%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Adarve (rating 1470 vs 1554).
H2H favours Union Adarve: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Parla	Union Adarve
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.5	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.44 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.23
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +7’	3.00	3.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +65’	3.44	3.23	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Parla 0–1–5 Union Adarve

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
07/08/21 Europe Friendlies	AD Parla	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
02/02/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	4-1	AD Parla
15/09/19 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	0-3 HT 0-2	Union Adarve
18/08/18 Europe Friendlies	AD Parla	0-3 HT 0-1	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	CD Mostoles URJC	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	7	3	4	0	16	7	13
4	AD Cala Pozuelo	7	4	1	2	12	10	13
5	Trival Valderas	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	7	3	3	1	12	13	12
7	Union Adarve	7	3	3	1	12	9	12
8	CD Galapagar	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
9	Torrejon	7	3	1	3	11	6	10
10	Leganes B	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
13	Real Aranjuez	7	1	3	3	12	16	6
14	Mexico FC	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	AD Parla	7	1	3	3	9	14	6
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	7	2	0	5	13	20	6
17	Rayo Vallecano B	7	1	1	5	10	17	4
18	Siello FC	7	1	1	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Parla	Union Adarve
Torrejon	0-4 L	0-4 L
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	2-2 D
Mexico FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
CD Colonia Moscardo	2-2 D	1-1 D
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	3-0 W	2-0 W
CD Galapagar	0-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Adarve (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Parla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
11/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
10/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-5	1	10	L

Union Adarve

WWWWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	7	6	W
11/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	8	9	W
04/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	9	L
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Parla vs Union Adarve?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Adarve win (42%). Probabilities: AD Parla 30%, draw 27%, Union Adarve 42%.

How many goals are expected in AD Parla vs Union Adarve?

The model expects 2.96 goals (AD Parla 1.34 · Union Adarve 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Parla vs Union Adarve?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.