Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: Las Rozas vs Mexico FC

Team pages: Las Rozas · Mexico FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Las Rozas1.8

Mexico FC0.95

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Las Rozas Draw Mexico FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Rozas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWWD

Mexico FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Las Rozas 1–5–0 Mexico FC (6 last)

Mexico FC1-1Las Rozas
Las Rozas1-1Mexico FC
Mexico FC2-2Las Rozas
Mexico FC1-3Las Rozas
Mexico FC0-0Las Rozas
Las Rozas1-1Mexico FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Rozas 1539 · Mexico FC 1467

	Las Rozas	Draw	Mexico FC
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Rozas (rating 1539 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Rozas	Mexico FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +13’	1.57	3.90	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Rozas 1–5–0 Mexico FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Spain Copa Federacion	Mexico FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Las Rozas
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	1-1 HT 1-0	Mexico FC
11/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Las Rozas
20/08/25 Spain Copa Federacion	Mexico FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Las Rozas
01/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Las Rozas
20/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	1-1 HT 1-1	Mexico FC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	7	4	2	1	16	9	14
2	CD Mostoles URJC	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	7	3	4	0	16	7	13
4	AD Cala Pozuelo	7	4	1	2	12	10	13
5	Trival Valderas	7	3	3	1	10	7	12
6	Pozuelo Alarcon	7	3	3	1	12	13	12
7	Union Adarve	7	3	3	1	12	9	12
8	CD Galapagar	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
9	Torrejon	7	3	1	3	11	6	10
10	Leganes B	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
11	Fuenlabrada	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
12	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
13	Real Aranjuez	7	1	3	3	12	16	6
14	Mexico FC	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
15	AD Parla	7	1	3	3	9	14	6
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	7	2	0	5	13	20	6
17	Rayo Vallecano B	7	1	1	5	10	17	4
18	Siello FC	7	1	1	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Rozas	Mexico FC
Trival Valderas	1-2 L	0-2 L
Leganes B	3-2 W	2-1 W
Torrejon	1-0 W	0-1 L
Union Adarve	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Las Rozas (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Rozas

LLWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	4-2	11	4	W
07/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
04/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-1	1	4	W
17/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	0	4	L
03/05	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	14	4	L

Mexico FC

DLWDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	2-2	8	5	D
11/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	3-4	6	11	L
03/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
27/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
19/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
05/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
26/04	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-3	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Rozas vs Mexico FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Rozas win (57%). Probabilities: Las Rozas 57%, draw 24%, Mexico FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Las Rozas vs Mexico FC?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Las Rozas 1.8 · Mexico FC 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Rozas vs Mexico FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.