Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 18/10, 11:30

Prediction: Torrejon vs AD Parla

Team pages: Torrejon · AD Parla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Torrejon1.77

AD Parla1.08

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Torrejon Draw AD Parla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Torrejon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLLWD

AD Parla 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWDLD

Head-to-head

Torrejon 4–1–1 AD Parla (6 last)

Torrejon1-0AD Parla
AD Parla1-3Torrejon
Torrejon1-1AD Parla
AD Parla2-1Torrejon
Torrejon2-0AD Parla
Torrejon1-0AD Parla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torrejon 1529 · AD Parla 1449

	Torrejon	Draw	AD Parla
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torrejon (rating 1529 vs 1449).
H2H favours Torrejon: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torrejon	AD Parla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.6	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 2.03 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +7’	1.70	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +23’	2.03	3.40	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torrejon 4–1–1 AD Parla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-3 HT 0-1	Torrejon
13/08/25 Spain Copa Federacion	Torrejon	1-1 HT 1-1	AD Parla
02/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	2-1 HT 1-0	Torrejon
22/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	2-0 HT 2-0	AD Parla
05/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-0	AD Parla

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	6	4	1	1	15	8	13
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	6	3	3	0	15	6	12
3	AD Cala Pozuelo	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
4	CD Galapagar	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	CD Mostoles URJC	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
8	Union Adarve	6	2	3	1	8	9	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	6	2	3	1	11	13	9
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	6	2	2	2	12	11	8
11	Leganes B	6	2	1	3	11	9	7
12	Torrejon	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
13	AD Parla	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
14	Mexico FC	6	1	2	3	7	9	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	1	2	3	10	14	5
16	Rayo Vallecano B	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
17	Siello FC	6	1	1	4	6	14	4
18	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	6	1	0	5	9	17	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torrejon	AD Parla
Fuenlabrada	1-3 L	2-2 D
Mexico FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
CD Colonia Moscardo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Alcorcon B	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torrejon

DWWLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
04/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	4-0	5	9	W
27/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
13/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	3-3	3	6	D

AD Parla

LLLLLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
03/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
10/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-5	1	10	L
26/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torrejon vs AD Parla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torrejon win (52%). Probabilities: Torrejon 52%, draw 26%, AD Parla 22%.

How many goals are expected in Torrejon vs AD Parla?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Torrejon 1.77 · AD Parla 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Torrejon vs AD Parla?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.