Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Union Adarve vs Siello FC

Team pages: Union Adarve · Siello FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Union Adarve1.96

Siello FC1.02

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Union Adarve Draw Siello FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Adarve 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDDLW

Siello FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Union Adarve 1–1–1 Siello FC (3 last)

Siello FC0-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-0Siello FC
Siello FC2-1Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Adarve 1543 · Siello FC 1471

	Union Adarve	Draw	Siello FC
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Adarve (rating 1543 vs 1471).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Adarve	Siello FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	0.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.57
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.20 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +7’	1.55	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +122’	1.57	3.62	5.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Adarve 1–1–1 Siello FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/26 Spain Copa Federacion	Siello FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
02/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-0 HT 1-0	Siello FC
23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Siello FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	6	4	1	1	15	8	13
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	6	3	3	0	15	6	12
3	AD Cala Pozuelo	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
4	CD Galapagar	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	CD Mostoles URJC	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
8	Union Adarve	6	2	3	1	8	9	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	6	2	3	1	11	13	9
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	6	2	2	2	12	11	8
11	Leganes B	6	2	1	3	11	9	7
12	Torrejon	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
13	AD Parla	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
14	Mexico FC	6	1	2	3	7	9	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	1	2	3	10	14	5
16	Rayo Vallecano B	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
17	Siello FC	6	1	1	4	6	14	4
18	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	6	1	0	5	9	17	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Adarve	Siello FC
CD Mostoles URJC	2-1 W	5-3 W
Torrejon	0-4 L	1-1 D
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	0-1 L
Mexico FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-1 D	1-5 L
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	2-0 W	0-2 L
Racing Madrid	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Adarve (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Adarve

WWWWWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	8	9	W
04/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	9	L
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W

Siello FC

WWWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
04/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
27/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
20/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-5	2	6	L
13/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	10	5	L
06/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-3	8	8	L
10/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
03/05	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-3	–	–	W
26/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/04	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Adarve vs Siello FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Adarve win (58%). Probabilities: Union Adarve 58%, draw 24%, Siello FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Union Adarve vs Siello FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Union Adarve 1.96 · Siello FC 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Adarve vs Siello FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.