Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 18/10, 11:45

Prediction: CD Mostoles URJC vs CD Galapagar

Team pages: CD Mostoles URJC · CD Galapagar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

CD Mostoles URJC1.73

CD Galapagar1.04

1X2

53% 26% 22%

CD Mostoles URJC Draw CD Galapagar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Mostoles URJC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDDWWWDL

CD Galapagar 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWDWLW

Head-to-head

CD Mostoles URJC 3–3–0 CD Galapagar (6 last)

CD Galapagar1-1CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC1-0CD Galapagar
CD Galapagar3-3CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC0-0CD Galapagar
CD Mostoles URJC2-0CD Galapagar
CD Galapagar0-1CD Mostoles URJC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Mostoles URJC 1525 · CD Galapagar 1541

	CD Mostoles URJC	Draw	CD Galapagar
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	53%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Mostoles URJC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Mostoles URJC	CD Galapagar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.6 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +10’	1.70	3.50	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +125’	1.76	3.48	3.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Mostoles URJC 3–3–0 CD Galapagar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Mostoles URJC
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Galapagar
01/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	3-3 HT 1-3	CD Mostoles URJC
07/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Galapagar
22/01/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Galapagar
18/09/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Mostoles URJC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	6	4	1	1	15	8	13
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	6	3	3	0	15	6	12
3	AD Cala Pozuelo	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
4	CD Galapagar	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	3	2	1	8	5	11
6	CD Mostoles URJC	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
8	Union Adarve	6	2	3	1	8	9	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	6	2	3	1	11	13	9
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	6	2	2	2	12	11	8
11	Leganes B	6	2	1	3	11	9	7
12	Torrejon	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
13	AD Parla	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
14	Mexico FC	6	1	2	3	7	9	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	1	2	3	10	14	5
16	Rayo Vallecano B	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
17	Siello FC	6	1	1	4	6	14	4
18	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	6	1	0	5	9	17	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Mostoles URJC	CD Galapagar
Union Adarve	1-2 L	1-3 L
Leganes B	1-1 D	3-2 W
AD Cala Pozuelo	1-0 W	1-3 L
Rayo Vallecano B	0-0 D	2-1 W
Pozuelo Alarcon	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Galapagar (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Mostoles URJC

DLLDDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-2	2	9	L
04/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	11	11	D
27/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
20/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
10/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
03/05	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-5	–	–	L
25/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
19/04	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

CD Galapagar

LLWWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-2	3	7	W
04/10	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
27/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	2-1	0	3	W
20/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-2	0	6	W
06/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
10/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	5-0	3	10	W
26/04	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
19/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Mostoles URJC vs CD Galapagar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Mostoles URJC win (53%). Probabilities: CD Mostoles URJC 53%, draw 26%, CD Galapagar 22%.

How many goals are expected in CD Mostoles URJC vs CD Galapagar?

The model expects 2.77 goals (CD Mostoles URJC 1.73 · CD Galapagar 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Mostoles URJC vs CD Galapagar?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.