Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Union Adarve vs CD Mostoles URJC

Team pages: Union Adarve · CD Mostoles URJC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Union Adarve1.06

CD Mostoles URJC1.31

1X2

30% 29% 42%

Union Adarve Draw CD Mostoles URJC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Adarve 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDDDL

CD Mostoles URJC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDWWWD

Head-to-head

Union Adarve 3–1–2 CD Mostoles URJC (6 last)

Union Adarve0-2CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC0-3Union Adarve
CD Mostoles URJC1-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve2-1CD Mostoles URJC
Union Adarve2-1CD Mostoles URJC
CD Mostoles URJC0-0Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Adarve 1510 · CD Mostoles URJC 1552

	Union Adarve	Draw	CD Mostoles URJC
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Mostoles URJC (rating 1510 vs 1552).
H2H favours Union Adarve: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Adarve	CD Mostoles URJC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	22/67/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	7.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.25

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +9’	3.00	3.25	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +144’	2.99	3.24	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Adarve 3–1–2 CD Mostoles URJC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	0-2 HT 0-0	CD Mostoles URJC
14/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Mostoles URJC	0-3 HT 0-2	Union Adarve
26/01/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
15/09/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Union Adarve	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Mostoles URJC
23/08/23 Spain Copa Federacion	Union Adarve	2-1 HT 1-1	CD Mostoles URJC
10/04/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	CD Mostoles URJC	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	4	2	2	0	9	4	8
3	CD Galapagar	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
5	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
7	Union Adarve	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Pozuelo Alarcon	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
9	Leganes B	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Mexico FC	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
11	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
12	Fuenlabrada	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
13	AD Parla	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
14	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	Torrejon	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
16	Siello FC	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
17	Rayo Vallecano B	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
18	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Adarve	CD Mostoles URJC
Torrejon	0-4 L	1-0 W
Fuenlabrada	2-2 D	3-1 W
Atletico Madrid C	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Mostoles URJC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Adarve

LWWWWWDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	9	L
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W
11/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	3	7	L

CD Mostoles URJC

LDLLDDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	11	11	D
27/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
20/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
10/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
03/05	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-5	–	–	L
25/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
19/04	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/04	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Adarve vs CD Mostoles URJC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Mostoles URJC win (42%). Probabilities: Union Adarve 30%, draw 29%, CD Mostoles URJC 42%.

How many goals are expected in Union Adarve vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Union Adarve 1.06 · CD Mostoles URJC 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Adarve vs CD Mostoles URJC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.